Trading Ideas
Gold Double Top
Mon, 19 Feb 2018 14:22:19 -0600
The price moved back to 1350.00 resistance level and bounced again. We can spot a double top chart pattern which gives us a trend reversal signal. This pattern will be confirmed if the price drops below the signal level. Now we have a reversal candlestick pattern at the resistance. RSI confirms price reversal. We have a new sell opportunity. Pending orders for sell can be placed at 1344.00 level with stop orders at 1365.00 level. Profit target can be at 1300.00 support level. If the price breaks this support and SMA100, it will be possible to open new short trades with profit target at 1250.00 level.
XAUUSD Bearish
Mon, 19 Feb 2018 05:40:09 -0600
XAUUSD Bearish
GOLD SHORT 1.6 300 pips
Mon, 19 Feb 2018 04:10:37 -0600
lets see if the resistance level at 1360- 65 will hold
Gold and The Mid-Term Election Cycle
Mon, 19 Feb 2018 03:27:20 -0600
The upcoming Mid-Term Election Cycle appears to be drawing money into the gold' market as early larger institutions and traders position themselves for uncertainty. Gold' is a pure sentimental play, and when people are uncertain about the economy or political system gold' tends to rise, as investors hedge against the unknown. This was clear in the past election cycle where we have a clear pattern tracking timely events, and what was more emotional or sentimental to most Americans then the past election£ Of the 34 seats up for election in the senate, 17 of these are up for grab of which 12 are held by democrats and 1 is an independent. This leaves only 4 Republican seats that are considered up for grabs which will require the democrats to hold all 12 seats and win 2 of the 5 up for grabs. Assuming Ted Cruz wins Texas, this puts the task of gaining 2 seats by the Democrats unlikely. In the house things are not so clear. 19 seats are up for grabs of which 11 are held by Republicans. The Republicans can only afford to lose 3 seats before giving up control. Now they are still likely to retain a majority, but having a majority and a controlling majority are two different things when it comes to passing bills'. With that said we have a booming economy right now, people are spending money, consumer confidence is high, the housing and construction market is still strong. IF an infrastructure bill passes then I believe it is likely we see Republicans retain control of the House and Senate but that is a BIG IF. It is still a long way to Kansas, and that IF will likely see some volatility in the markets which will be good for gold' in the short term. Stay away from VIX' type ETN's! Since the low following the 2016 election gold' has slowly trended to the upside twice topping out at the critical resistance level of 1360 recently. As we approach the 2nd quarter of earnings I believe gold' continues to trend towards the bottom of the channel disbarring a political or geo-political event that can change sentiment quickly. Second quarter earnings will be our first insight into the affect the tax break has to the bottom line. We get good earnings gold' retests the lower channel and even possibly the 1215 level going into summer. If there is uncertainty going into the summer midterm campaign elections, expect gold' to recover forming a higher low, and finally breaking the 1360 resistance level, targeting the 1400-1450 levels and a higher high. I believe we get this uncertainty not in the form of reality, but in the form of fake news. We saw this in the past election cycle where gold' whip sawed up and down before settling around the 1125 level after the election hype dwindled. Sentiment drives markets in the end, and nothing is more sentimental then gold'. I still like silver' here over gold' as a longer term trade.
Gold trades weak on dollar recovery, good to sell on rallies
Mon, 19 Feb 2018 01:14:14 -0600
Gold has declined almost more than $15 on Friday and strong dollar recovery. The yellow metal hits low of $1344 on Friday. US dollar has jumped almost 100 pips from the low of 88.25. It is current trading around $1348.60. The yellow metal minor selling is possible on short covering in USDJPY. USD/JPY has shown a more than 100 pips recovery from the low of 105.55. The yen and gold are moving in tandem with each other on safe haven demand. On the lower side, any break below $1341 (38.2% fibo) will drag the gold down till 1337 (20- day MA)/$1330/$1320. Bearish continuation only if it breaks below $1305 level. The near term resistance is around $1357 and any close above will take the commodity till $1360/$1366. Overall bullish continuation only above $1366. It is good to sell on rallies around $1351-$53 with SL around $1360 for the TP of $1330/$1324.
looking for a bias on gold
Mon, 19 Feb 2018 01:06:35 -0600
Looking at the weekly, I think we will be heading down, I will be short biased on gold.
XAUUSD short£
Sun, 18 Feb 2018 11:17:52 -0600
Double top as seen on H4 chart could potentially push Gold prices down for the time being.
GOLD BUY 1337.64 TG 1382.87+ SL 1328.25
Sun, 18 Feb 2018 10:47:01 -0600
GOLD BUY 1337.64 TG 1382.87+ SL 1328.25 Trade With Confidence MAKE MONEY IN TONS ...
Gold Elliot Wave Analysis.
Sun, 18 Feb 2018 01:53:18 -0600
A quick EWA. Gold in a triangle cycle ABCDE (confirmed to the upside since the last high was higher than the previous). First expansive wave 12345 and correction wave ABC finished at the first higher low. Second expansive wave 12345 and correction wave ABC finishing at the third higher low. Now started a new expansive 12345, currently at the 3rd wave in the making, possibly reaching a 5th near 1440. The triangle ABCDE might be confirming the breakout, or maybe there's some more room to the downside to complete the E (near 1300, however given the current PA it seems unlikely). Fundamentals to monitor: Inflation rising since 2015, keep tracking that for any change. Interest rates hikes (bad in the short term, good in the mid term). Bond market, special attention to yields. Rising yields could trigger a stock crash, in the short to mid term expect some volatility and lower prices due to liquidations into USD. DXY index. As per suggested in the previous one. Stock index. As per suggested in the previous one, expect some volatility if stocks crashes, later to regain impulse.
The Fork
Sun, 18 Feb 2018 00:45:58 -0600
Hi guys. This is my humble understanding of the current price action with the bull flag there and the fork with it. Feel free to criticize and thank you for taking a look.
Sun, 18 Feb 2018 00:08:56 -0600
Price at a very strong supply zone, where as you can see each time price tries to break though sellers quickly push price below, showing bears are applying a lot of pressure to this zone.
GOLD Short
Sat, 17 Feb 2018 13:44:29 -0600
Gold is ripe coming off a key level of resistance. That entry was missed and so we will look for other areas to enter and get involved in the trade. Price looks to be forming a continuation flag pattern on the 15M chart and we will look to short the market when price breaks out and hold until the next level of structure.
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