BNP Paribas - The bank for a changing world
“Macro Waves”: the new podcast by BNP Paribas Economic Research
Tue, 13 Nov 2018 16:10:37 +0100
Looking for insights in the economy and financial markets? William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Economic Research, deciphers the latest economic developments each month. - (source:
7 days of Economics: Eurozone, Cooler sentiment
Fri, 09 Nov 2018 17:08:44 +0100
Sentiment indicators continue their softening trend and the flash estimate points towards weak third quarter GDP growth  Yet drivers of final demand continue to point towards ongoing good growth in the upcoming quartersData in the coming weeks as well as developments concerning Brexit and US tr... - (source:
7 days of Economics: US, don’t mention the R word
Fri, 02 Nov 2018 17:00:17 +0100
People update their expectations more quickly when media coverage of a given economic topic becomes more intense The change in the outlook is more important than today’s cyclical environmentMonitoring media coverage of economic slowdown risk will become particularly relevant against the background... - (source:
7 days of Economics: US, what explains the increase in equity market volatility?
Fri, 26 Oct 2018 16:40:12 +0200
Equity markets continue to be particularly volatile Understandably this has weighed on government bond yieldsThe volatility of high yield bonds remains low however. This could indicate that recent equity market swings are driven by other factors than worries about the outlook for GDP growth or monet... - (source:
7 days of Economics: Strengthening the eurozone, prospect of progress at last?
Fri, 19 Oct 2018 17:10:41 +0200
The German finance minister has made a plea for the creation of a pan-European unemployment fund Being able to borrow from the fund would require having contributed in the past as well as having met certain criteria in terms of economic policy This form of risk-sharing would soften the impact o... - (source:
7 days of Economics: US, Data-dependent discomfort
Fri, 05 Oct 2018 17:39:43 +0200
Recent indicators point towards ongoing strong US growth The non-manufacturing ISM index has caused a jump in treasury yields: data-dependent forward guidance implies that investors expect the Fed will not remain passive when data are particularly strongGrowth outside the US is slowing yet higher US... - (source:
7 days of Economics: US, Fed: The Phillips curve is flat
Fri, 28 Sep 2018 16:52:48 +0200
Fed chairman Jerome Powell made important comments during his press conference Fiscal policy is on an unsustainablepath and lasting widespread tariffs would be bad for the US and the worldMonetary policy remains accommodative and data-dependentMarkets liked the dovish bias in the message Is it time ... - (source:
7 days of Economics: Markets feeling better though nothing has changed
Mon, 24 Sep 2018 10:25:21 +0200
Judging by the recent developments in financial markets, investors feel more upbeat On the economic front (growth and the outlook for monetary policy) nothing has really changedThe euro has benefitted from the ‘risk-on’ environment despite a widening interest rate differential with the US  ... - (source:
7 days of Economics: Ten years after, The uncomfortable new normal
Fri, 14 Sep 2018 17:30:46 +0200
Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, assessing to what extent major economies have fully recovered from the ensuing global financial crisis and the Great Recession very much depends on the perspective which is chosen A mixed picture emerges: in most countries per capita real GDP is highe... - (source:
7 days of Economics: Decline of manufacturing sentiment slows down
Fri, 07 Sep 2018 17:11:02 +0200
Since the end of 2017, most countries have witnessed a decline of the Markit PMI index for the manufacturing  sector The pace of decline is slowing however in the past 3 months compared to the previous 3 monthsThis and  the still high ... - (source:
7 days of Economics - USA, Fed: Market considers tightening cycle is well advanced
Fri, 27 Jul 2018 16:08:18 +0200
Recent Federal Reserve research shows that the slope of the short end of the yield curve is a more reliable indicator than the commonly used difference between 10-year and 1 or 2-year US Treasury yields In a similar vein, we can look at the difference between the forward 3-month LIBOR rate and the s... - (source:
7 days of Economics - The US yield curve: be careful what you wish for
Fri, 20 Jul 2018 17:00:00 +0200
The flattening of the US treasury curve has received a lot of attention as of late because historically recessions have been preceded by an inversion of the yield curve  A rather flat curve does not imply that a recession is imminent However, historically once the yield curve starts to ste... - (source:
7 days of Economics: Conflicting perspectives raise eyebrows
Fri, 13 Jul 2018 16:41:44 +0200
Speculative positioning in VIX futures shows investors expect volatility to remain low, which implies an absence of growth orinflation shocks The flattening of the US yield curve shows investors expect slower growthThese conflicting views may reflect differences in investment horizon but in the end,... - (source:
Investing—why choose Asia?
Tue, 10 Jul 2018 17:11:35 +0200
A spring awakening is sweeping through Asia’s financial markets, which have become increasingly popular among investors. Asia constitutes a strong growth region, notably for BNP Paribas Asset Management. The Group has positioned itself as a leading investor in the region, while integrating Environ... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Germany: Still relaxed about softer sentiment
Fri, 29 Jun 2018 16:56:34 +0200
German business climate indicators have eased since the start of the year, a movement which is broad-based Very recently, some indicators have stabilisedCorporate uncertainty, as measured by the dispersion of the assessments of the economic outlook, has not increased yet despite concern about a trad... - (source:
7 days of Economics: The headwind of tariff uncertainty
Fri, 22 Jun 2018 17:11:25 +0200
Worries about tariff increases are a headwind to growth because of the uncertainty about the outcome and its timing Global value chains complicate the analysisTariffs increase input prices in the importing country and weigh on order books in the exporting countrySince the start of the year, both inp... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone, ECB: nervousness postponed
Fri, 15 Jun 2018 17:30:59 +0200
Skilful expectations management meant that the announcement of the end of the net purchases of the QE program didn’t cause any stirs Markets have applauded the introduction of date and state dependent guidanceIn the course of next year, nervousness will increase again as investors will wonder whet... - (source:
7 days of Economics- Italy : Markets act as the boy who cried wolf
Fri, 01 Jun 2018 17:15:43 +0200
Political uncertainty in Italy has caused market turmoil with significant spillover effects within but also beyond the Eurozone Contagion within the eurozone was of a different nature than in 2011With a new government in place, attention will now focus on its economic policy, in particular in terms ... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone : Domestic support, global risks
Fri, 25 May 2018 16:29:13 +0200
The ECB meeting account shows a central bank which is confident about the growth outlook despite the recent softness of data The concerns relate to global factors which have become more prominent: the threat of trade protectionismThis concern isalso echoed by the Federal Reserve The much expected ma... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Emerging markets: a sudden chill
Fri, 18 May 2018 17:10:22 +0200
In recent years, emerging market issuers, in particular corporates, have raised huge amounts of USD debt, thereby increasingtheir sensitivity to an appreciation of the dollar Rising US treasury yields, a sudden strengthening of the dollar and countryspecificissues have triggered considerable portfol... - (source:
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