BNP Paribas - The bank for a changing world
7 days of Economics: Three different messages from Washington DC
Fri, 12 Apr 2019 16:37:26 +0200
President Trump has argued that the US economy would get a boost if the Federal Reserve were to cut rates The minutes of the FOMC show the members are confident about the growth outlook. The outlook for inflation, against a background of global uncertainties, allows them to be patient in terms ... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Starting to look a bit better
Mon, 08 Apr 2019 11:59:28 +0200
Strong job creation in March in the US has brought relief after the disappointing data the month beforeThe Chinese manufacturing indices have rebounded and crossed the 50 levelIn the eurozone, the pressure on the manufacturing sector continues but the services PMI has improved. Retail sales have bea... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Eurozone growth, some hopeful signs
Fri, 29 Mar 2019 16:12:08 +0100
After last week’s poor flash PMIs, data published this week show a mixed pictureThe European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index continues to decline in a large number of countries and for the eurozone as a whole as wellIFO data for Germany show an improvement in the overall climate though man... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
Asia Region: the economic outlook for 2019
Thu, 28 Mar 2019 11:26:42 +0100
Although confronting new challenges, Asia's economy is still the world's growth engine, accounting for 62% of global GDP growth. In an uncertain international context, what is the outlook for 2019? Christine Peltier, Deputy Head of the Country risk team in the Economic Research Department, Economist... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: US, Discomforting dots
Fri, 22 Mar 2019 16:30:10 +0100
The growth projections of the FOMC members have been revised downwards and the unemployment projection has seen an upward revisionThe projections for the federal funds rate (the “dots”) have dropped 50 basis points The Fed chairman considers the outlook to remain favourable, adding that it ... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: China, towards a stabilisation of growth? Not yet
Fri, 15 Mar 2019 15:00:26 +0100
The plethora of data released this week didn’t remove concern about the Chinese growth slowdownLunar holiday bias and the recent fiscal  stimulus measures imply it is too early to draw firm conclusionsThe matter is important for the global economy given China’s... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
Events that will impact the economy in 2019
Wed, 06 Mar 2019 11:18:49 +0100
Brexit, European elections, the US primaries... 2019 promises to be geopolitically intense and uncertain. How will these events impact the global economy? William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, shares his analysis. - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Sentiment measures offer mixed picture
Fri, 01 Mar 2019 18:53:50 +0100
The latest survey data show a very mixed picture In the manufacturing sector, China saw some signs of stabilisation, whereas Japan experienced a deterioration. In Germany, manufacturing remains under pressureThe picture in the eurozone is quite diverse, depending on the country and the sectorLo... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: European Union, China exposure and export sentiment
Fri, 22 Feb 2019 17:44:41 +0100
Considering its considerable weight in world GDP, slower growth in China causes spillover effects Over the past 12 months, countries which are more exposed to China in terms of exports have seen a bigger drop in their new export order assessmentIn Germany there is a close correlation between th... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
Money creation: how does it work?
Tue, 19 Feb 2019 16:00:49 +0100
With the European Central Bank (ECB) recently unveiling its new €100 and €200 banknotes, we decided to take a closer look at how bills are printed, as well as the larger concept of ‘money creation’. What does this term mean? What role do the ECB and commercial banks play in this process? We ... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Foreign versus domestic drivers of weaker sentiment
Fri, 15 Feb 2019 17:43:36 +0100
Since early 2018, based on the purchasing manager indices, a large number of countries have witnessed a decline in the assessment of new export orders which was bigger than the decline of the general climate in manufacturing This suggests a dominance of foreign demand shocks, rather than domest... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Eurozone, what does weakening sentiment tell us about growth?
Fri, 08 Feb 2019 16:32:55 +0100
The European Commission now expects 1.3% growth for the eurozone this year, down from 1.9% in its previous forecast This downward adjustment doesn’t come as a surprise, considering the declining trend of several survey indicators The recent performance of these indicators in tracking GDP... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Fed turning a corner, but into which direction?
Fri, 01 Feb 2019 18:11:12 +0100
Although US growth remains strong, global headwinds, softer survey data and tighter financial conditions have put the FOMC in risk management modePolicy remains data dependent, but a patient stance will be adopted before deciding on the next move in monetary policy Inflation, which remains well... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
What is fueling the boom in rental property investment?
Tue, 29 Jan 2019 09:49:30 +0100
Demand for rental homes has surged across major cities in Europe, Asia and North America. In many cases, this often triggers a rise in rental property investment, like in France where the share of these investments has climbed 17.5% in two years. What factors are fueling this boom? Discover insights... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: When environmental, trade and social policies meet
Fri, 25 Jan 2019 16:37:52 +0100
The recent “economists’ statement on carbon dividends” offers important policy prescriptions for the US to address global warmingIt explicitly refers to the need for a border carbon adjustment system so as to maintain competitiveness versus countries that would not have introduced a carbon tax... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
Podcast "Macro Waves": 3 episodes to understand the challenges of globalization
Mon, 21 Jan 2019 16:24:26 +0100
After looking at monetary policy and green finance, "Macro Waves", the podcast by BNP Paribas Economic Research, returns in January with a series of three podcast on globalization with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Economic Research. - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Brexit, the cost of uncertainty
Fri, 18 Jan 2019 17:21:50 +0100
Market reaction suggests that the parliamentary vote, with a wide majority, against the Brexit deal which had been negotiated with Europe, has reduced the likelihood of a no-deal BrexitWhether this feeling of relief lasts will depend on how the discussions on possible outcomes evolveThe economic hea... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
Economy : The projections for 2019 by William De Vijlder, Head of Economic Research at BNP Paribas
Wed, 16 Jan 2019 10:39:00 +0100
It’s the time of year again when economists issue their annual assessments—what are the highlights from the past 12 months? What do they mean? What trends lie on the horizon? William De Vijlder, Head of Economic Research for the BNP Paribas Group, looks back on 2018 and shares his forecast for 2... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: US, The Powell put
Fri, 11 Jan 2019 16:46:53 +0100
Fed chairman Powell has recently emphasized that the FOMC will be patient given the muted inflation reading and that it is ready to shift the policy stance swiftly if requiredHe also considers that financial markets are pricing in downside risks well ahead of the data. This means that they are too p... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
7 days of Economics: Global economy: In the grip of growth fears
Mon, 24 Dec 2018 11:48:00 +0100
The new projections of the FOMC show a downward revision to growth in 2019, a slower pace of Fed tightening and a lower cyclical peak level of the federal funds rateLower bond yields, a weaker dollar and a global decline in equity markets show that investors are in the grip of a growth scareThis is ... - (source: group.bnpparibas)
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