What Are The Major Institutions Trading? | Weekly COT Report (24/2 to 28/2)
Tue, 25 Feb 2020 02:23:47 +0000

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The COT Report shows the long and short positions of the major institutions - which currencies they are the most bullish on and which currencies they are the most bearish on. This information is very useful for swing traders who hold positions for more than a day.

The currency with the strongest bullish bias would be the USD, with Institutions adding more long contracts and at the same time also reducing the amount of short contracts that they were holding onto.

The currency with the strongest bearish bias would be the NZD, AUD and following behind the JPY. Institutions are currently holding more shorts and also adding alot more short positions.

The best plays this week would be to:

1) Long USD/JPY

2) Short AUD/USD and NZD/USD

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
USD index attempting to hit 99.00
Tue, 25 Feb 2020 00:43:36 +0000

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The USD Index is forming a market maker sell model after a breakout and a close below the level of 99.50. The US dollar is likely to attempt to overcome the level of 99.00. If it happens, the USD index may continue its downward movement. The bias will stay bearish as long as the US dollar does not retrace to 99.65.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Possible bullish pattern is USDCAD
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 22:36:34 +0000

USDCAD has formed a very promising bottom formation around 1.32 and is bouncing towards 1.33 as expected. Next targets are at 1.3358 and 1.3425 as long as price is above 1.32.

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Blue line - bearish divergence

Red line - resistance (broken)

Horizontal red lines - targets

Green line - expected path

USDCAD I believe has made a meaningful bottom at 1.32 and we should expect price to continue higher above 1.33. The RSI has been making glaring bullish divergence warning signs. Price has also broken above recent lower high strengthening our bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 22:30:30 +0000

EURUSD has finally closed a daily candlestick above the tenkan-sen indicator. Our next bounce target is at 1.0947 where we find the downward sloping kijun-sen. Price could even reach 111 if bulls are strong enough.

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EURUSD is crossing the tenkan-sen. Next bounce target is the kijun-sen. If that breaks also, then we should be prepared to see price challenge the Kumo. At this point what I see as most probable scenario, is that price reaches close to the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and fails to break it, leading to new lows.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
USDJPY reverses off our 2nd target
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 22:25:15 +0000

In a previous post we noted the bullish flag pattern in USDJPY and the two possible targets. Price almost touched the second target area and is now pulling back towards the break out area. This is most probably a back test of the breakout area, rather than a failed break out.

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Blue line -long-term resistance trend line

Green line - support trend line

Red horizontal Fibonacci expansions = targets

USDJPY managed to reach 112.22, but prices reversed as risk off took over due to the coronavirus threat spreading into risky assets. Price has fulfilled its upside target and we are now seeing an important back test.

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Blue line - resistance

Green line - support

Green rectangle - horizontal support

USDJPY has reached the previous highs and once resistance area at 110.30. Bouncing off this area would be a bullish sign. Inability to hold above 110.30 would be a very bearish sign. Major long-term support is at 108.30. Bulls need to hold above this level no matter what.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Technical analysis on Gold for February 25, 2020
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 22:19:14 +0000

Gold price is pulling back after making a spike higher in early trading this morning at $1,689. The Daily candlestick is a bearish reversal one as the long upper tail with a hammer formation does not leave us with the confidence that a new high is coming soon.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Green line - bearish divergence

Gold price is making new highs not followed by the RSI. The RSI is making lower highs in what we call a bearish divergence. This is an important warning. Not a reversal signal, but just a warning. Gold price has recently moved higher in a parabolic way, so it is normal to see big fluctuations and big drops as volatility rises. Weekly support is found at $1,600-$1,620 and we could see a pull back towards that area before we resume the up trend to $1,700.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
February 24, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 17:22:16 +0000

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On December 30, a bearish ABC reversal pattern was initiated around 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) just before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1100 (In the meanwhile, the EURUSD pair was losing much of its bearish momentum).

One more bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1175 where the depicted key-zone as well as the recently-broken uptrend were located. That's why, quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1100 then 1.1035 which failed to provide enough bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair.

Further bearish decline took place towards 1.1000 where the pair looked quite oversold around the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel where significant bullish rejection was able to push the pair back towards the nearest SUPPLY levels around 1.1080-1.1100 (confluence of supply levels (including the upper limit of the channel).

Since then, the pair has been down-trending within the depicted bearish channel until last week when bearish decline went further below 1.0950 and 1.0910 (Fibonacci Expansion levels 78.6% and 100%) establishing a new low around 1.0790.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair looks quite oversold after such a long bearish decline and if bullish recovery is expressed above 1.0845-1.0860, further bullish advancement would be expected towards 1.0910 then 1.0950.

Intraday traders were advised to look for signs of bullish recovery around the price levels of (1.0790) as a valid intraday BUY signal aiming towards 1.0910 (the nearest broken demand-level).

By the end of Last week, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around 1.0790 leading to the ongoing bullish movement which will pursue as high as the price level of 1.0910.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.0790 may enable more bearish decline towards new historical lows around 1.0755 and even 1.0700.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
February 24, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 17:06:47 +0000

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On December 13, the GBPUSD pair looked overpriced around the price levels of 1.3500 while exceeding the upper limit of the previous bullish channel.

On the period between December 18th - 23rd, bearish breakout below the depicted channel followed by temporary bearish closure below 1.3000 were demonstrated on the H4 chart.

However, immediate bullish recovery (around 1.2900) brought the pair back above 1.3000.

Bullish breakout above 1.3000 allowed the mentioned Intraday bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3250 (the backside of the broken channel) where bearish rejection and a new wide-ranged movement channel were established between (1.3200-1.2980).

Recent temporary bearish breakdown below 1.2980 enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2890 (the lower limit of the movement channe) where evident bullish rejection has been manifested on February 10.

Last week, temporary bullish breakout above 1.3000 has been expressed until Wednesday when another bearish decline below 1.3000 brought the GBPUSD pair back towards the lower limit of the channel @ 1.2870 -1.2850 where another episode of bullish recovery is being demonstrated.

The current bullish pullback will probably pursue towards the price zone of 1.2980-1.3000 which may fail to offer enough bearish rejection.

Although the Intermediate-term technical outlook remains bearish below the price level of 1.3000 (Supply-zone), any bullish breakout above 1.3000 invalidates this bearish scenario.

If so, further bullish advancement will be demonstrated towards the price levels of 1.3070 and 1.3150.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of February 24
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 13:36:59 +0000

Hello, colleagues!

For the Euro/Dollar pair, we follow the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle from February 20 and the level of 1.0868 is the key resistance. For the Pound/Dollar pair, the price formed a pronounced upward structure for the top of February 20 and the level of 1.2876 is the key support. For the Dollar/Franc pair, we follow the formation of the downward structure from February 20 and the level of 0.9768 is the key resistance. For the Dollar/Yen pair, we expect a resumption of the upward trend after the breakdown of 111.98. For the Euro/Yen pair, we follow the initial conditions for the top from February 18 and the level of 121.25 is the key resistance. For the Pound/Yen pair, we expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 144.60 and the level of 143.90 is the key support.

Forecast for February 24:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the H1 scale:

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For the Euro/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0951, 1.0928, 1.0895, 1.0868, 1.0843, 1.0807, 1.0794, 1.0775, and 1.0751. Here, we follow the formation of the initial conditions for the top of February 20. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 1.0843. In this case, the target is 1.0868 and the breakdown of which will lead to a movement to the level of 1.0895 (consolidation is near this level). The breakdown of 1.0895 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0928. We consider the level of 1.0951 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.0807-1.0794 and a key reversal to the top is expected from this range. The breakdown of the level of 1.0794 will lead to the cancellation of the upward structure from February 20. In this case, the first target is 1.0775. We consider the level 1.0751 as a potential value for the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle from February 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0843 Take profit: 1.0866

Buy: 1.0869 Take profit: 1.0895

Sell: 1.0794 Take profit: 1.0775

Sell: 1.0773 Take profit: 1.0752

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For the Pound/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3082, 1.3031, 1.2990, 1.2955, 1.2876, 1.2848, 1.2804, and 1.2754. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure from February 20. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 1.2955. In this case, the target is 1.2990 (consolidation is near this level ). The breakdown of which will lead to the development of an upward cycle. Here, the first target is 1.3031. We consider the level of 1.3082 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The level of 1.2876 is the key support for the ascending structure. Its passage at the price will lead to a movement to the level of 1.2848 and the breakdown of which will continue to develop a downward trend on the H1 scale. In this case, the target is 1.2804. We consider the level of 1.2754 as a potential value for the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of an upward structure from February 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2955 Take profit: 1.2990

Buy: 1.2992 Take profit: 1.3030

Sell: 1.2876 Take profit: 1.2848

Sell: 1.2846 Take profit: 1.2806

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For the Dollar/Franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9848, 0.9829, 0.9811, 0.9768, 0.9747, 0.9718, and 0.9699. Here, we follow the formation of the descending structure from February 20. We expect a continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 0.9768. In this case, the target is 0.9747 (consolidation is near this level). A break of 0.9745 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9718. We consider the level of 0.9699 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.9811-0.9829. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure from February 20. In this case, the first potential target is 0.9848.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle from February 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9811 Take profit: 0.9827

Buy: 0.9831 Take profit: 0.9848

Sell: 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9749

Sell: 0.9746 Take profit: 0.9720

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For the Dollar/Yen pair, the key levels in the H1 scale are: 112.97, 112.53, 112.29, 111.98, 111.72, 111.10, 110.83, and 110.49. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure from January 31. At the moment, the price is in a correction. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 111.72-111.98. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the resumption of the upward trend. In this case, the first target is 112.29 and in the corridor of 112.29-112.53 is the consolidation. We consider the level of 112.97 as a potential value for the top, after which we expect a rollback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 111.10-110.83 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first potential target is 110.50.

The main trend is the upward structure from January 31, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.72 Take profit: 111.96

Buy: 112.00 Take profit: 112.29

Sell: 111.10 Take profit: 110.85

Sell: 110.80 Take profit: 110.50

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For the Canadian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3413, 1.3386, 1.3345, 1.3312, 1.3266, 1.3241, 1.3224, and 1.3201. Here, the price forms potential initial conditions for the top of February 21. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3312. In this case, the target is 1.3345 (consolidation is near this level). The breakdown of 1.3345 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3386. We consider the level of 1.3413 as a potential value for the top; upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a correction.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.3266-1.3241 and the range of 1.3241-1.3224 is the key support for the ascending structure. Its passage by the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.3201.

The main trend is the formation of an upward structure from February 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3312 Take profit: 1.3341

Buy: 1.3346 Take profit: 1.3386

Sell: 1.3266 Take profit: 1.3241

Sell: 1.3224 Take profit: 1.3201

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For the Australian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.6668, 0.6647, 0.6632, 0.6614, 0.6594, 0.6567, and 0.6551. Here, we follow the downward structure from February 12. The consolidated movement is expected in the corridor of 0.6614-0.6594 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6567. We consider the level of 0.6551 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.6632-0.6647 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.6668 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure from February 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6632 Take profit: 0.6645

Buy: 0.6649 Take profit: 0.6666

Sell: 0.6612 Take profit: 0.6596

Sell: 0.6592 Take profit: 0.6569

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For the Euro/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.38, 122.61, 122.04, 121.25, 120.97, 120.50, 119.97, and 119.44. Here, we follow the initial conditions for the top from February 18. We expect a continuation of the upward movement after the price passes the range of 120.97-121.25. In this case, the target is 122.04 and in the corridor of 122.04-122.61 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 123.38 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 120.50-119.97 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 119.44 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top from February 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.25 Take profit: 122.04

Buy: 122.06 Take profit: 122.60

Sell: 120.50 Take profit: 120.00

Sell: 120.95 Take profit: 119.47

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For the Pound/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 146.35, 145.56, 145.19, 144.60, 143.89, 143.51, and 142.91. Here, we follow the ascending structure from February 10. We expect a continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 144.60. In this case, the target is 145.19 and in the corridor of 145.19-145.56 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 146.35 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A consolidated movement is possible in the corridor of 143.89-143.51, hence the high probability of a reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 143.50 will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 142.91 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from February 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.60 Take profit: 145.19

Buy: 145.21 Take profit: 145.54

Sell: 143.87 Take profit: 143.52

Sell: 143.49 Take profit: 142.95

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 24. The pound lost all Friday's positions, however, this is a great chance for
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 13:27:50 +0000

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:

In the first half of the day, the bulls failed to catch on to the support of 1.2927, the breakdown of which led to a rapid fall of the pound in the area of 1.2884, from which I recommended opening long positions. A good rebound from this level with the building of the lower border of the new ascending channel keeps the bulls' hope for the continued growth of the pound in the short term. An important task for the second half of the day will be a breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2927, which will lead to an update of the highs in the area of 1.2960 and 1.2996, where I recommend taking the profits. If the bears again return the pair to the minimum of 1.2884, it is better to abandon long positions and wait for the update of the minimum of 1.2851, where I recommend buying immediately for a rebound.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Bears continue to control the market. The return to the support of 1.2927 led to complete overlap of Friday's growth. Now an important task for sellers is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2884, which will quickly push the pound to the lows of 1.2851 and 1.2830, where I recommend fixing the profits. But no less important task will be to protect the level of 1.2927 already in the role of resistance. The formation of a false breakdown in this range will be a signal to open short positions. In a different scenario, it is best to sell GBP/USD on a rebound from the maximum of 1.2960.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates market uncertainty after the bears quickly regained control of the market today.

Bollinger Bands

The pound bounced off the lower border of the indicator but the task of the bulls will be to break the middle of the channel in the area of 1.2935.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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