DB Research - Neueste Publikationen und Beiträge
State subsidies for battery cell production: For information on risks and side effects, please do not consult policymakers or recipients of incentives
Thu, 18 Apr 2019 12:00:00 +0200
Not least because they fear that the trend towards electromobility may cause losses in value added and job cuts in Germany, policymakers are debating subsidies for national battery cell production. From a regulatory perspective, supporting local manufacturing would be dubious and comes with high economic risks. On princi-ple, German automakers ought to be better judges than policymakers, both with regard to the indispensability of battery cell manufacturing in Germany and its long-term profitability. The state is not needed, at least not as a source of subsidies.
EU elections countdown #3: Meet the EU(ro)sceptics
Thu, 11 Apr 2019 12:00:00 +0200
Soft and hard EU(ro)sceptic as well as anti-establishment parties could account for one-quarter up to one-third of the seats in the next EP, according to our updated poll-based projections. We have doubts about whether Eurosceptic and nationalistic groups in the EP will be able to overcome their previous discrepancies and build a significantly more united bloc. However, even without a joint agenda, Eurosceptics could make coalition building (as on the national level) much more complex and increasingly split the next EP into two camps.
The sprint for sportswear
Tue, 09 Apr 2019 12:00:00 +0200
Over the past 12 months, sportswear brands have grown exponentially and their shares are up 30% even against the background of general nervousness in equity markets. What is behind this optimism, and is it still warranted when there are so many concerns about global growth?
Exports and autos weigh heavily on the German economy in 2019
Tue, 09 Apr 2019 12:00:00 +0200
If you think of Germany in the night (and you are an economist) three questions will jolt you from your sleep. Will external demand recover? Will the auto industry overcome its WLTP-induced supply shock and (if you are a Keynesian economist) will the government launch a fiscal package? The answers, of course, are not independent of each other. (Included in this issue: German exports 2019, world trade, the automotive industry's performance, public finances and the view from Berlin)
RMB bond index inclusion and its impact
Thu, 04 Apr 2019 12:00:00 +0200
April 1 marked an important milestone for China’s financial markets, as Chinese Yuan-denominated bonds are to be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. According to Bloomberg, the index will include over 360 eligible bonds, with a c.6% weight, making it the fourth-largest currency component in the index, after the USD, the EUR and the JPY, and the inclusion will take place over a 20-month period.
Monthly Chart Book: April Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)
Wed, 03 Apr 2019 12:00:00 +0200
Key highlights from Torsten Slok’s, Chief Economist, Monthly Chart Book detailing macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.
European Central Bank: Updated capital key “forces“ the ECB to reduce holdings of Italian, Spanish and French bonds
Wed, 03 Apr 2019 12:00:00 +0200
At the recent meeting of the Governing Council on 7 March 2019, the ECB decided to maintain an extremely expansionary degree of monetary accommodation in future. It now announced to keep target rates at their present extraordinarily low levels at least through year-end 2019 – instead of just "through the summer", as previously pledged. Furthermore, it reiterated that it intends to maintain the huge size of EMU sovereign bond holdings purchased between March 2015 and the end of December 2018 for an incalculable period of time. As a consequence, principal payments from maturing securities bought under the APP (asset purchase programme), including sovereign bonds from the PSPP portfolio (public sector purchase programme) have to be reinvested in full. This ought to support demand for EMU bonds for some time to come, putting downward pressure on yields.
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